Should we expect further acceleration of the Earth’s rotation in the coming years?

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Abstract

Recently, it was suggested in the literature that the difference between universal and coordinated time UT1–UTC could reach a large positive value in the coming years (Agnew 2024). This would make it necessary to introduce a negative leap second into UTC for the first time in history, which in turn will cause serious problems in time keeping and synchronization systems around the world. Based on the latest Earth’s rotation and Universal Time data published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and their prediction, this paper shows that the acceleration trend observed over the past four years is likely to return to slowing down soon. Therefore, fears about the possible need to introduce a negative leap second into the UTC time scale in the next few years in the light of recent observational data seem unfounded.

About the authors

Z. M. Malkin

Pulkovo Observatory

Author for correspondence.
Email: malkin@gaoran.ru
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg

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