On one statistical method for analyzing economic processes balancedness

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  • Authors: Bogatov E.M.1,2, Demidova E.G.3
  • Affiliations:
    1. Starooskolsky Technological Institute named after A.A. Ugarov, Branch of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University ‘MISIS’ ”
    2. Branch of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University ‘MISIS’ ” in the town of Gubkin
    3. Starooskolsky Technological Institute named after A. A. Ugarov (Branch) of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University «MISIS»”
  • Issue: Vol 60, No 1 (2024)
  • Pages: 121-132
  • Section: Mathematical analysis of economic models
  • URL: https://rjmseer.com/0424-7388/article/view/653317
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0424738824010103
  • ID: 653317

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Abstract

The paper proposes a statistical approach to determining the stability and sustainability of economic processes based on the analysis of the dynamics of averages and standard deviations of one or more industry average indicators characterizing these processes. According to this approach, a method for constructing acceptable limits for the change in and similar to the method used in quality control of technological processes by means of Shewhart or Hotelling control charts is proposed. Going beyond the acceptable limits of the indicators ͞X (S̅) will signify the instability (unsteadiness) of the corresponding process; a process that has the property of stability and sustainability at the same time is defined as balanced. The method of analysis of economic processes presented in the paper differs from the traditional one — it allows not only to compare the retrospective indicators of the analyzed enterprise with the industry average or recommended value, but also to determine the trend in the behavior of the analyzed process within acceptable limits. The boundaries are set on the basis of a statistical analysis of the indicators of this process for a homogeneous sample, which includes similar companies. In addition, the authors’ methodology allows us to assess the dynamics of the spread of indicator values, which is also an important factor in the study of economic processes. The method was tested as part of the analysis of the financial and economic process, characterized by the coefficients of financial stability and profitability of sales of a number of Russian metallurgical companies observed over a period of ten years (2012–2021).

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About the authors

E. M. Bogatov

Starooskolsky Technological Institute named after A.A. Ugarov, Branch of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University ‘MISIS’ ”; Branch of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University ‘MISIS’ ” in the town of Gubkin

Author for correspondence.
Email: embogatov@inbox.ru
Russian Federation, Gubkin; Stary Oscol

E. G. Demidova

Starooskolsky Technological Institute named after A. A. Ugarov (Branch) of the Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education “National Research Technological University «MISIS»”

Email: dmitrikeg@mail.ru
Russian Federation, Stary Oscol

References

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