Consideration of the impact of risk situations on the beneficiaries of investment projects

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Abstract

The article discusses a number of key issues of risk accounting in the development of investment projects. The need for this analysis is caused by errors encountered in the development of business plans for investment projects and distortions of the provisions of modern investment design techniques. Thus, one of the main principles of the assessment is to take into account the presence of different project participants, since the implementation of any investment project affects not only the interests of the direct participants, but also the interests of society, the national economy and the economies of the regions in which the relevant changes are planned, as well as budgets of different levels. However, business plan developers focus on performance indicators from the perspective of a single “design firm”. At the same time, assessments of the activities of subjects in the “project” situation, reflected in the business plans of the projects, are interpreted as assessments of the investment projects themselves, changing the prevailing trends. The article shows that the initiator of the project, in order to make informed decisions, is important not only the performance indicators of the activities “with the project”, but also the effectiveness of the project itself, as well as evaluating the effectiveness of participation in its implementation from the perspective of the main partners and higher-level structures. Attention is also paid to the problems of underestimation in business plans of the financial feasibility of the project and the definition of sustainability boundaries. The distortions of interpretations of a number of key provisions in the development of business plans noted in the article are illustrated by specific numerical examples of the correct use of approaches described in the methodological literature.

About the authors

D. S. Aleksanov

RSAU — MSAA named after K. A. Timiryazev

Email: daleksanov@mail.ru
Moscow, Russia

M. V. Gracheva

Economics Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Email: grachevamv@mail.ru
Moscow, Russia

N. V. Chekmareva

RSAU — MSAA named after K. A. Timiryazev

Email: cnv2005@yandex.ru
Moscow, Russia

References

  1. Алексанов Д. С., Кошелев В. М., Чекмарева Н. В. (2017). Анализ инвестиционных проектов в АПК: учебник. М.: Реарт. [Aleksanov D. S., Koshelev V. M., Chekmareva N. V. (2017). Analysis of investment projects in agriculture: textbook. Moscow: Reart (in Russian).]
  2. Виленский П. Л., Лившиц В. Н., Смоляк С. А. (2015). Оценка эффективности инвестиционных проектов: Теория и практика: Учебное пособие. 5 изд., перераб. и доп. М.: Поли Принт Сервис. [Vilensky P. L., Livshits V. N., Smolyak S. A. (2015). Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects: Theory and practice: A textbook. 5th ed., revised. and add. Moscow: Poly Print Service (in Russian).]
  3. Грачева М. В. (2018). Математические методы в инвестиционно-проектной деятельности: учет рисков. В кн.: «Математические и инструментальные методы в современных экономических исследованиях». С. Я. Бабаскин, С. А. Никитин, Е. А. Петренева, Я. А. Рощина. М.: Экономический факультет МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова. С. 134–170. [Gracheva M. V. (2018). Mathematical methods in investment and project activities: Risk accounting. In: “Mathematical and instrumental methods in modern economic research: ”. S. Ya. Babaskin, S. A. Nikitin, E. A. Petreneva, Ya. A. Roshchina. Moscow: Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University, 134–170 (in Russian).]
  4. Грачева М. В., Алексанов Д. С. (2024). Анализ рисков инвестиционных проектов с учетом современной практики финансового анализа. В кн.: «Актуальные направления математических, статистических, инструментальных и учетно-аналитических методов исследования в условиях цифровизации». М. Ю. Афанасьев, А. Р. Бахтизин, В. Л. Макаров и др. М.: РУСАЙНС. С. 71–130. [Gracheva M. V., Aleksanov D. S. (2024). Risk analysis of investment projects based on modern practice of financial analysis. In: “Current trends in mathematical, statistical, instrumental and accounting-analytical research methods in the context of digitalization”. M. Yu. Afanasiev, Bakhtizin A. R., V. L. Makarov et al. Moscow: RUSAINS, 71–130 (in Russian).]
  5. Коссов В. В. (2016). 1300 страниц про оценку инвестиций (рецензия на книгу П. Л. Виленского, В. Н. Лившица, С. А. Смоляка «Оценка эффективности инвестиционных проектов: теория и практика») // ЭНСР. Т. 73. № 2. С. 150–157. Режим доступа: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/1300-stranits-pro-otsenku-investitsiy-retsenziya-na-knigu-p-l-vilenskogo-v-n-livshitsa-s-a-smolyaka-otsenka-effektivnosti-investitsionnyh [Kossov V. V. (2016). 1300 pages on investment assessment (review of the book by P. L. Vilensky V. N. Livshits S. A. Smolyak “Assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects: theory and practice”). Economics of Contemporary Russia, 73, 2, 150–157. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/1300-stranits-pro-otsenku-investitsiy-retsenziya-na-knigu-p-l-vilenskogo-v-n-livshitsa-s-a-smolyaka-otsenka-effektivnosti-investitsionnyh (in Russian).]
  6. Лившиц В. Н. (2016). Тридцать три типовых заблуждения при оценке эффективности реализуемых в России инвестиционных (инновационных) проектов // Экономика и качество систем связи. № 2. С. 3–20. [Livshits V. N. (2016). Thirty-three typical misconceptions when evaluating the effectiveness of investment (innovation) projects implemented in Russia. Economics and Quality of Communication Systems, 2, 3–20 (in Russian).]
  7. Методические рекомендации по оценке эффективности инвестиционных проектов. Вторая редакция (2000). М.: ОАО «НПО Изд-во “Экономика”». [Methodological recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects. Second edition (2000). Moscow: JSC NPO Ekonomika Publishing House (in Russian).]
  8. Методические рекомендации по оценке эффективности инвестиционных проектов. Третья редакция, исправленная и дополненная (2008). Официальный сайт ИСА РАН. Режим доступа: http://www.isa.ru/images/Documents/metod.zip [Methodological recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects. The third edition, corrected and supplemented (2008). Official website of ISA RAS. Available at: http://www.isa.ru/images/Documents/metod.zip (in Russian).]
  9. Орлова Е. Р. (2016). Бизнес-план: Методика составления и анализ типовых ошибок. М.: Омега-Л. [Orlova E. R. (2016). Business plan: Methodology of compilation and analysis of typical errors. Moscow: Omega-L (in Russian).]
  10. Смоляк С. А. (2012). Оценка эффективности инвестиционных проектов в условиях риска и неопределенности (теория ожидаемого эффекта). Интернет-версия. Режим доступа: http://sasmolyak.socionet.ru/files/BOOK2012.pdf [Smolyak S. A. (2012). Assessment of the effectiveness of investment projects in conditions of risk and uncertainty (theory of expected effect). Online version. Available at: http://sasmolyak.socionet.ru/files/BOOK2012.pdf (in Russian).]

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML

Copyright (c) 2025 Russian Academy of Sciences