PREDICTION OF ENVIRONMENT STATE IMPACT IN AREA OF A COPPER-NICKEL PLANT ON THE BASIS OF BALANCED IDENTIFICATION TECHNOLOGY

A. V. Sokolov; Соколов А. В.; N. A. Gashkina; Гашкина Н. А.; T. I. Moiseenko; Моисеенко Т. И.

doi:10.31857/S2686739723601667

PREDICTION OF ENVIRONMENT STATE IMPACT IN AREA OF A COPPER-NICKEL PLANT ON THE BASIS OF BALANCED IDENTIFICATION TECHNOLOGY

Authors: Sokolov A.V.¹, Gashkina N.A.¹, Moiseenko T.I.¹
Affiliations:
1. Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences
Issue: Vol 513, No 2 (2023)
Pages: 299-307
Section: GEOECOLOGY
Submitted: 30.01.2025
Published: 01.12.2023
URL: https://rjmseer.com/2686-7397/article/view/649778
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S2686739723601667
EDN: https://elibrary.ru/TYUZWA
ID: 649778

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Abstract

The article deals with modeling the dynamics of nickel concentration in soils, water and bottom sediments of lakes, caused by emissions into the atmosphere of the Pechenganickel plant (Kola Peninsula) during the entire period of its operation. The technology of balanced identification is used, which allows, based on a mathematical description of heterogeneous geochemical processes occurring in ecosystems, to combine heterogeneous experimental data and build a computer model with an optimal balance of complexity and closeness to data. The results are presented and discussed, including estimates of the retrospective state of the simulated objects (before the start of intensive studies) and a forecast of their dynamics until 2030. According to model calculations, the intensity of Ni accumulation in soil was 2.4 and 2 times higher in bottom sediments during maximum precipitation periods (1980–2005), while according to the model forecast, after the shutdown of the plant, Ni accumulation in bottom sediments will begin to decrease and Ni will slowly leach from the soil with an intensity of 0.2 mg/m2 year.

Keywords

pollution transformation, nickel, subarctic water and terrestrial ecosystems, balanced identification, prediction

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