On modeling seismicity in seismic hazard assessment problems

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Abstract

Seismicity modeling is an important part of creating General Seismic Zoning maps within the framework of a probabilistic approach. We consider the main disadvantages of individual elements of the recent seismicity models. A variant of the methodology is proposed, which, due to the improvements of those elements, should provide more accurate estimates of the future seismicity. For the first time, a stochastic seismicity model has been proposed in the form of a synthetic earthquake catalog, generated for an arbitrary conditional period and reproducing the properties of the catalog of actual earthquakes, including spatiotemporal grouping. A methodology for verifying seismicity models is proposed to check the compliance of the models with the initial data, to assess the predictive efficiency of the models, and to compare efficiency of different models.

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About the authors

P. N. Shebalin

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: shebalin@mitp.ru

Corresponding Member of the RAS

Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

S. B. Baranov

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Kola Branch, Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Apatity

I. A. Vorobieva

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow; Moscow

Е. M. Grekov

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

К. V. Krushelnitskii

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

A. A. Skorkina

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

О. V. Selyutskaya

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: shebalin@mitp.ru
Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Variations in seismic activity, – an estimate of the number of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 3.5, calculated using the formula (1). Earthquakes are shown in black circles. The values are linked to the centers of the scan circles.

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3. Fig. 2. Map of earthquake epicenters in a circle with the coordinates of the center (106° vd, 53° s. w.). The blue cross shows the center of the circle, the red cross shows the average position of earthquakes (106.8° vd, 52.6° s. w.), which is shifted relative to the center of the circle by 70 km.

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4. Fig. 3. Variations in seismic activity, – an estimate of the number of earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 3.5, calculated using the formula (1). The values are linked to the average position of the sample earthquakes. Earthquakes are shown in black circles.

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5. Fig. 4. Results of verification of the synthetic earthquake catalog of the Altai-Sayan-Baikal region according to the actual catalog from 1982 to 2021, M – L-test. The empirical distribution function (blue curve on the left) and the histogram (on the right) are logarithmic likelihood values. The vertical line shows the value of L.

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